AVO has officially downgraded the status at Redoubt from “Watch” (orange) to “Advisory” (yellow). The seismicity at the volcano has dropped off for the last couple weeks and signs that an eruption was imminent have waned. This, again, shows the difficulty in trying to predict the behavior of a volcano. All the signs were there at Redoubt – increased seismicity, increased heat flow at the summit (seen as melting ice and increased fumarolic output), increased volcanic gases (CO2 and SO2) – but as of right now, it seems like these signs only pointed to magma moving up the system, but not out of the system (i.e., eruption). Anchorage might call this a “near miss,” but Redoubt will erupt again, more likely sooner rather than later. As AVO puts in in their statement today:
It remains possible for unrest at the volcano to change rapidly, advancing from relatively low levels to eruption in time periods as short as 24 hours or less.
And that is why we need volcano monitoring, especially when volcanoes are so complex.
Count this as your mini-update for Redoubt, with the news being no news. Even AVO seems a little bored with Redoubt lately (not to say they aren’t watching it as vigilantly as ever) as their last three updates have been exactly the same:
Redoubt volcano has not erupted. Seismicity is low, but above background levels and consists mainly of small discrete earthquakes. Night has fallen and no image is visible in the webcam.
As there has been a lot of chatter about the goings-on at Redoubt, I thought I’d post the latest AVO update (3:35 PM):
Redoubt volcano has not erupted. Seismicity is dominated by small discrete earthquakes and tremor remains at the diminished levels of the past two days. Webcam images are now clear and show no change in the volcano.
Nothing doing. In fact, seems quieter than it has been in the last few weeks.
The Redoubt watch is now been going for well over a month and this is how quickly things can change when monitoring volcanoes. The headline in my volcano RSS, when I saw it said:
“Redoubt quiets after weeks of activity, though eruption still possible”
By the time I clicked on the link, the headline for the KTUU TV article became:
“Redoubt steaming at strongest level, seismic activity calms”
The seismic event refered to happened yesterday afternoon (Alaska time) and the volcano rumbled for about an hour, getting picked up by seismometers all around the Cook Inlet. They also mention that steam vents on the volcano were the most vigorous as has been seen so far. John Power from AVO did temper the expectations of activity:
“We do feel that the most likely outcome of the current activity of level will be a eruption at some point, although it is still always a possibility that it could die away…”
Currently, Redoubt seems to have quieted back down according to the latest report from AVO. The watch marches on.
Not much new to report with Redoubt except that folks in Alaska are getting, well, a little punchy.
AVO currently reports (7:12 AM):
Volcanic tremor and occasional discrete earthquakes continue at Redoubt. Since 00:00 local time on 2/24, tremor amplitude at nearby stations has gradually increased, and the number of small earthquakes on nearby stations has increased slightly.
Redoubt isn’t exactly making us volcanologists look too good lately. That is the nature of the beast, I suppose.